Bull Market Ahead? Let's Find Out!
Run Baby, Run
What a rush the past week has been! Bitcoin broke above $21k on Saturday for the first time in two months, and today we saw a strong pump up above $23k. Does this mean we’ve seen the Bear Market Bottom and the winter is finally over?
Let’s explore this further. Yes, Bitcoin has recovered from the losses incurred after the FTX fiasco (SBF is out on bail at a cost of $250M, the trial is set for October and he intends to plead not guilty to fraud), lots of shorts have been liquidated and on-chain data shows that there are more BTC wallets that are in unrealised profit than loss, even at these prices. However, zooming out a little, we still have a long way to go before we can say we’re in a bull run.
We’ve broken through the 200-Day EMA (so far, so good!), however, looking at the 2-Year MA Multiplier, we’ve got to break above $37.4K before we can say we’re entering the crypto summer season. That means that anything below that price is a steal, so if you’re an accumulator/DCA’er, then you’re more than likely gonna see some great upside over the coming year or two. The expectation that BTC will reach a 6-figure All Time High (ATH) this bull cycle is palpable. 2024 will be a great year and we can expect our ATH early-mid 2025.
Source: lookintobitcoin.com
Next in line is the FED interest rate hikes planned as a way to curb inflation - historically that means crypto prices will fall. We’ve also got Genesis, another crypto lender filing for bankruptcy, which was a major client of the failed exchange FTX. Problem is, Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, founded by twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is now unable to issue $900M in client funds, which were locked up in their Earn programme. The program allowed Gemini users to lend their crypto assets through Genesis to earn up to 8% in interest. If Genesis is forced to sell assets in order to pay back that money, the effect on the crypto market could be damaging.
So, a lot is yet to happen this year and there is no doubt a lot more to come because, if you haven’t noticed, crypto volatility is nothing new. However, with the development of Web3 going off like a rocket, the wheat being separated from the chaff as all this fraudulent activity by centralised entities and decentralised scammers gets washed away, what will remain during the bull cycle should be something beautiful. For now, take your time, do your own research and watch what happens. If you’re a long-term HODLer, you’ll ride this wave like any other and be home free come 2024/25. I’ll be there with you 😉💋
